6.5 Graphs Outlining the US Economy

I’m in a room that’s 8 feet by 10 feet. It’s just me. There’s a small box playing loops of TV shows, but I’m ignoring it. The temperature is 95 degrees but its cold in here. And I have a lot to think about.

I know I’m going to pay for it. Situations like this require penance and it’s going to cost me. It’s part of life though and inevitably I’ll be back.

The bill was a shade under $200. Frankly it could have been a lot worse. My car hasn’t been serviced in a year; it needed an oil change, inspection, tire rotation, and the radiator hose had a hole in it. I paid for the car, but I got time to think.

This cycle of activity drove me to consider the business cycle. It normally looks like a sound wave with peaks (good times) and valleys (recessions).

Are we still in a recession? Are we in an initial recovery? Maybe even an early upswing? Chris Stuart wondered the same thing in his write up Why We’re At The Early Upswing Stage In The Business Cycle.

I predicted the recession after observing a lack of income appreciation and buying patterns changing in October 2007 and although this is a classic supply and demand cycle where aggregate demand is lacking it feels more structural. Structural means the skills needed in the employment arena are lacking in the environment, so a transitional period of training is required. Instead of a sudden shift in skills we have an elongated one. Globalization dramatically changed supply chains and created liquidity in the job market. Goods producing jobs like manufacturing are now feasible almost anywhere. And the education advantage of the US is no longer prevalent.

This is forcing the US to consider it’s jobs strategy, or at least create one in the first place. Many of the assumptions about the viability of the US worker are no longer true. And think about the US consumer. Will they always buy? Like an alarm clock introducing the morning, the US worker and US consumer realized better days are not guaranteed. People are starting to slowly de-leverage. It’s a huge adjustment in the way people live their lives and it will take time. The debt burden is simply too great.

So if this cycle is a classic supply and demand recession and the US consumer isn’t going to buy (low demand) then isn’t this going to take awhile? Yes, the rest of 2011 and 2012.

Here’s my outline of the timescale:

Jobs will be tepid but consistent for the rest of the year and next. Companies large and small are getting creative with their resources. Many are investing in equipment rather than people (you don’t need to buy health insurance for an industrial printer), but the gains will be positive. There is no double dip recession.

The best workers are beginning to jump to other opportunities. They’ve installed micro-innovations for their current employers, but since volume has been low these improvements haven’t knocked anyone’s socks off. But they will.

So after a period of discipline, brighter days are ahead.

——–

I wanted to pull together some graphs showing what’s happened since the beginning of 2008. Below are four time-scaled illustrations showing the situation with jobs.

  1. The first one is the overall jobs report. It shows how far we have to go to balance out the lost jobs.
  2. The second one is a growth rate of jobs for the private sector as they relate to Service Producing and Goods Producing industries. Goods Producing encapsulates manufacturing and construction, two of the harder hit industries. 
  3. Since the ratio of Service Providing jobs and Goods Producing jobs is 5 to 1, I wanted to show the relative impact and that is what the third graph depicts.
  4. The last one the Dow Jones during the same period. It’s the index that most people focus on as a reflection of the stock market.

Lastly, Wired did some research with Linkedin.com about what terms people were using in their titles after they changed jobs. The results below reflect a pool of 7 million linkedin users and a good indication of what jobs are in need in this day in age. But remember, people still need an oil change.

Working Thoughts 6/15/2010
We Respond To Cues Very Effectively

Working Thoughts 6/15/2009
Resilient Attitudes are Rare

May 2011 Jobs Report and Wages

Here are the job market and compensation numbers for April 2011 (based on the job report):

Net gain of 54,000 jobs in the month (revised to a gain of 25,000 jobs)
  • Analysts expected an overall gain of 180,00Private sector payrolls increased by 83,000
  • Private service producing industries added 80,000 (194,000 last month and 154,000 the month before
  • Goods producing industries gained 3,000 (38,000 last month and 40,000 the month before)
  • The US has added 908,000 private sector jobs this year and 2.1 million since the start of 2010
  • April was revised to a gain of 232,000 from an original reading of 244,000
  • March was revised to a gain of 194,000 from an original reading of 216,000 and a revision of 221,000
  • Revisions subtracted 39,000 jobs from earlier readings
  • Payroll processing company ADP said private-sector payrolls grew by 38,000 in May
  • downwardly revised 177,000 increase in April
  • economists’ expectations for private sector job growth of 170,000 for the month.
  • the manufacturing sector cut 9,000 jobs
  • the financial services sector lost 6,000 jobs
  • the construction sector cut 8,000 workers
  • the broader services sector added 48,000 jobs overall
  • McDonald’s hired 62,000 workers, which are part of a subcategory called food services. Without this hiring spree, the report could conceivably be a neutral report (no jobs gained or lost)
    In April, the number of job openings was 3 million, down a touch from 3.1 million in March
    About 13.9 million people were out of work in April
  • 6.2 million had have been jobless for six months or longer
    45.1% of the unemployed are long term unemployed.
  • Employers announced plans to cut 37,135 jobs in April, down 4.3% from May 2010
  • 1.8% increase over April’s 36,490 planned job cuts
  • comparing the first five months of 2010 to 2011 shows 2011 has 21% fewer announced job cuts (things are bad, but not as bad as last year)

Unemployment rate rose to 9.1%

  • Analysts predicted it would remain at 8.9%
  • The labor force
    participation rate is 64.2% (66.5% is average to good) – unchanged for the fifth straight month
  • The employment to population ratio is 58.4% – No change
  • The U-6 report, which is a broader group to count (workers who are part time but want to be full time and discouraged worker), rose to 15.8% from 15.9% last month
  • PMI, a measure of manufacturing pace, is 53.5% and the 22nd consecutive month of readings over 50 percent. Anything above 50% means the machines are running. This is a significant drop from April’s reading of 60.4%
  • Service sector activity rose to 54.6% (52.8% last month and 57.3% before that and down from 59.7%). It was the 17th straight month of growth


Specific Segment Job numbers:

  • Manufacturing lost 5,000 jobs
  • Construction gained 2,000 jobs
  • Retailers lost 8,500 jobs
  • Leisure and Hospitality Services lost 6,000 jobs
  • Government sector lost 29,000, 28,000 was in local government
  • Education and Health Services grew by 34,000 jobs
  • Health Care and Social Assistance grew by 27,200
    • Professional and Business Services grew by 44,000
    • 1,200 jobs lost in Temporary Help

Wage (can be revised):

  • The average hourly earning (seasonally adjusted) is $19.43 – up six cents from last month and 11 cents over the last two months
  • Average weekly hours and overtime of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted is 33.6 hours, no change again

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Defining the Future for the Class of 2011

Congratulations to the class of 2011. You’ve earned the gratification of moving your tassel from one side of the cap to the other.

What does the future hold? What is out there? You’ll be told to find yourself, follow your passion, and chase your goals. And many of you will wonder what those are. There’s debt, perhaps an entry level job, and monthly bills. Before you can commit to your boundless dreams you already have these torments and everything that goes along with it. Chances are you’ll be figuring out credit cards, bad bosses, and hung over early morning meetings. Every day is a new day.

If you learned anything in school, I hope you’ve learned how to think. To ask why? Anyone can follow directions, good thinkers are people who understand why they exist. Great thinkers design the instructions. What is the path? What are the steps? “If this happens, then do this” and the decision tree associated with it. Working through these scenarios develops an ability to cope with complexity. Said another way – for greater enlightenment, do you want a happy meal toy or a jet engine?

And I beg you to create something. The world is a better place when people work to assemble rather than tear apart. If you’re a business person I’d start with thinking about value proposition. Think about a situation and how things work together. What is the context for which a transaction operates? Consider the decisions people are making and the information they are using. What drives them to act and is the desired behavior? Is there a status quo? Have people accepted things as they are?

The world you experience is very different than the world I know. And that is good. There are generally two types of knowledge explicit and tacit.

  • Explicit Knowledge – is knowledge that has been or can be articulated, codified, and stored in certain media. It can be readily transmitted to others. The information contained in encyclopedias (including Wikipedia) are good examples of explicit knowledge.
  • Tacit Knowledge – involves learning and skill but in a way that is difficult to transfer from one person by means of writing it down or verbalizing it. Tacit knowledge can consist of habits and culture that we do not recognize in ourselves. I can tell you how to ride a bicycle, but you won’t know how until you learn to balance.

Graduation means you’ve probably spent close to $1,000 on books over the last few years acquiring explicit knowledge. You’ve studied in your dorm room and memorized facts about amortization. You’ve read what the top of Kilimanjaro looks like.

Now is the time to look yourself. It doesn’t have to be the top of a mountain, a high point works just fine. Experience the edge and feel the risk. Trace the path you’ve taken to this simple point. Once you’ve climbed one high point, you’ll climb another and another.

Nothing worth doing is easy and life isn’t fair. Your experience is unique, always ask why, and focus on creating something, anything. And remember, every day is a new day.

Split Personalities – Tax Breadth and Tax Depth

We seem to have split personalities when it comes to the news and our politics. In the news we hear about natural disasters and the sour economy. In politics we hear about the failings of the President and the deficit. Why are these two voices talking about different subjects?

The truth is they are talking about the same problem, just different ends of it. The US is maturing. A large portion of the population is entering their retirement years. Every day, for the next 19 years, 10,000 baby boomers will turn 65. By 2030, 18% of the U.S. population will be over 65, compared with today’s 13%.

This is important for several reasons, but here are two:

  1. Federal tax collection is based on income. Those that are retired usually don’t make significant income, so the taxes they contribute are very low. A change or decrease of 5% is a huge impact to the revenue of the government. Or said another way, 10,000 people, who have a high average income, can drop out of the tax pool everyday.
  2. The baby boomers have been in leadership positions for two decades. The groups behind them, smaller in numbers, will need to fill the void.

The first reason is why you hear about Medicare and the budget. The second reason is why you hear about stimulus and silicon valley.

– When we talk about the deficit and paying down the debt we are talking about the inevitability of time. Our demographics show an aging population who will not be contributing to tax rolls. Less income means less spending. Tax Breadth.

– When we talk about innovation and stimulus spending we are pushing for investment and hopefully an improvement in future wealth and the standard of living. This would offset the loss of tax income from those no longer in the workforce. Tax Depth.

Both of these are concerns. I tend to be more transfixed with the latter. Many young professionals are either not entering the workforce or they are at compensation levels below the norm of 5 years ago. This lag in pay is not easily overcome and tends to persist for a career. Smaller income means smaller taxes paid. In addition to that, younger professionals are not moving into challenging roles as they would have in the past. Opportunities for learning experiences are reduced. Plus what they’ve been taught in school isn’t applicable e.g. China has changed dramatically since 2007, but the text books didn’t.

The 18% not in the workforce is unavoidable, but what should be asked is what’s to come of the under employed?

There will always be some number of the under employed, but we are currently looking at a devastating mix of long durations and loss of skills. The recession as it began in 2007 was a supply and demand recession, meaning nothing out of the ordinary occurred. But the last two years has led to a structural recession. This means that the skills and knowledge the US worker has isn’t quite matching up with what labor is needed. If this is more than a blip then high unemployment will continue for a few years as education and training requirements sort themselves out.

But I also feel like the 16-24 group, or more broadly the under 30 age group, is pioneering a new track. The way the view the world is much different than their older counterparts. As a consumer group they can influence the creation and offering of products and services. The next 24 months will be telling about the future of this country.

April 2011 Jobs Report and Wages

Here are the job market and compensation numbers for April 2011 (based on the job report):


Net gain
of 244,000 jobs in the month

  • Analysts expected an overall gain of 185,000 (200,000 for private sector growth)
  • Private sector payrolls increased by 268,000
    • Private service producing industries added 224,000 (199,000 last month and 152,000 the month before)
    • Goods producing industries gained 44,000 (31, 000 last month and 70,000 the month before)


  • The US has added 800,000 private sector jobs this year and 2.1 million total over the past 14 months
  • The last three months have averaged a job gain of 233,000- this is the fastest rate of growth since early 2006
  • February was revised to a gain of 235,000 from a revised 194,000 and an original reading of 192,000
  • March was revised to a gain of 221,000 from an original reading of a 216,000 gain
  • Revisions added 46,000 jobs
  • There are 6,955,000 fewer total nonfarm jobs since the recession started in December 2007. Although 244,000 jobs added is good, it will take 29 more months to dig out of the hole
  • Payroll processor ADP reported an employment gain of 179,000 jobs
    • 47% of the 179,000 ADP reported gain came from small business (firms with less than 50 employees). It was 49 last month and 46% the month before
    • Large businesses (greater than 500 employees) hired 6.25% of the 179,000 gain


  • McDonald’s hired 62,000 workers, but those hirings missed the survey window and will be more associated with the May Jobs Report
  • About 13.7 million people were out of work in April – however, in a positive move many newly unemployed people are not getting fired.
    Instead they are leaving voluntarily, presumably because they think they
    can do better.
    The number of people unemployed because they lost jobs fell to 8,144,000 in April, the lowest figure in two years
  • 5.8 million had have been jobless for six months or longer (a drop of 283,000 from last month, which is good) down from 6.5 million in March 2010

    • 43.4% of the unemployed are long term unemployed. Down from 45.5% last month
  • Employers
    announced plans to cut 36,490 jobs in April, down 4.8% from April 2010 when the economy stalled

Unemployment rate rose to 9.0%

  • Analysts predicted it would remain at 8.8%
  • The labor force
    participation rate is 64.2% (66.5% is average to good) – unchanged for the fourth straight month
    • Lowest since 1984
    • The participation rate was dropping before the recession began due to changing demographics of the US population
    • Every day, for the next 19 years, 10,000 boomers will turn 65. By 2030, 18% of the U.S. population will be over 65, compared with today’s 13%
    • Job expansion to account for population growth (keeping the unemployment rate steady) is estimated to be 150,000 and 200,000, but the partially delayed retirement of the baby boomers is moving these numbers to 75,000 to 100,000

  • The employment to population ratio is 58.4% – No change
  • Normally the unemployment rate moves in lock step with changes to the participation rate and the employment ratio but the diverge this month because the household survey is finding a reduction of employed people by 190,000 people. With surveys there tends to be noise and the drop from 10% to 8.8% was probably too quick so a little rise is natural to sort things out
  • The
    U-6
    report, which is a broader group to count (workers who are
    part
    time but want to be full time and discouraged worker), rose to 15.9% from 15.7% last month
  • PMI,
    a measure of manufacturing pace, is 60.4% and the 22nd consecutive
    month of readings over 50 percent. Anything above 50% means the
    machines are running
  • Service
    sector activity dropped to 52.8% from 57.3% last month and down from 59.7% in February. A dramatic drop when compared to other improvements (lowest level since August 2010). It was the
    16th straight month of growth
  • GDP, the most widely used measurement of the the American economy grew at a lackluster 1.8 percent in the first quarter,
    according to the government’s estimate for the first quarter
  • Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 1.6 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2011

Specific Segment Job numbers:

  • Manufacturing gained 29,000 jobs
  • Construction gained 5,000 jobs
  • Retailers gained 57,100 jobs
  • Leisure and Hospitality Services gained 46,000 jobs
  • Government sector lost 24,000, 22,000 was state and local government
  • Education and Health Services grew by 49,000 jobs
    • Health Care and Social Assistance grew by 41,800

  • Professional and Business Services grew by 51,000
    • 2,300 jobs lost in Temporary Help

Wage (can be revised):

  • The
    average weekly paycheck (seasonally
    adjusted) is $650.83
  • The average hourly earning (seasonally adjusted) is $19.37 – up a nickle from last month
  • Corporations set a new record for profits: $1.68 trillion annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2010
  • Average
    weekly hours and overtime of production and nonsupervisory employees on
    private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted is
    33.6 hours, no change

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Using Particular Phrases to be More Compelling

I’ve recently been on vacation and I’m catching up on some reading. One of my favorite magazines and websites is the Harvard Business Review or HBR.org.

In the March 2011 issues is an Idea Watch section about the persuasiveness of experts. What the finding suggests is that when experts are less certain about their opinion, the more likely the opinion is going to be interesting and perhaps more intriguing to the audience.

What does this mean? It’s a little nugget for helping when people are scanning through information. If there are themes or patterns people tend to zone a out a bit. Important nuance can be lost. But when those themes are broken the reason for the deviation prompts curiosity.

This can be applied in the workplace. As the labor reports are coming out the economy is slowly picking up steam. There are many people looking for work. If you are writing a job recommendation for someone, its good to pepper in the phrase “high potential” in addition to “high achieving.”

  • High Achieving – Is a reference to the past. It shows capability and success but it isn’t necessarily relevant.
  • High Potential – Is a reference to the future. It latches onto a vision, onto hope, and shows adaptability and flexibility. Its more inspiring.

Here’s a blurb from the article Experts are More Persuasive When They’re Less Certain:

What makes a message compelling?

By “compelling,” I mean relevant to the core argument. In
another study, we had subjects read reviews that also gave four out of
five stars, but their content wasn’t really about the restaurant. They
said things like “My friend and I laughed the whole time. I liked the
way the menu looked and the colors they used.” That’s not compelling.
Even if it were interesting, it’s not what makes a restaurant good or
bad. Whether the reviews were confident or not, people didn’t find them
persuasive.

Where else do you want to take your certainty research?

One thing I’ve started looking into with some other
collaborators, Jayson Jia and Mike Norton, is how people view potential.
Our initial findings seem to show that people value high potential more
than high achievement.

That explains why a rookie quarterback like Sam Bradford makes more money than Super Bowl champ Drew Brees.

Sports are a great example. In one study,
participants read the scouting report on a basketball player. Some read
the actual stats for the player’s first five years in the league; others
read predictions for the first five years’ performance. The numbers
were identical. Then we asked, How much would you pay this player in
year six? On average, people gave the veteran who had performed $4.26
million and the rookie who was projected to perform $5.25 million, over
20% more.

Rookie talent in general, not just in sports, seems vastly overweighted.

Exactly. If you present people with letters of
recommendation for one job candidate described as “high potential” and
another described as “high achieving,” they’ll find the letter for the
high potential candidate more interesting and possibly more persuasive.

How can people be so thick?

Proven achievement is very certain. It’s less surprising
and less interesting to think about. Potential is uncertain and kind of
exciting. You can imagine many outcomes. Maybe they’ll do better than
you expect!

OK, I have to ask: How certain are you about the validity of your research?

I think our findings tell us something important. But you
never know what other variables could be in play here. The more we
research this, the better we’ll understand it.

I’ll buy that.

You see? It works.

Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart – A Book Review

Quick Take: Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart is a collection of academia based essays proving the comparative value of decision making based on good enough information. The examples and anecdotes are good, but there is complex math to wade through. It isn’t a leisure read. However, each section can be consumed on it’s own. If you’re a student of decision making, whether it’s group dynamics or individual situations, then this book is a good heuristics reference.

Detail Review: Many of us have a comfortable chair which serves as our place to relax.
Its great for 40 winks. But why do we relish peacefully falling asleep
in a chair? Most of the time it’s because we are mentally exhausted. Everyday we are faced with an ever changing list of choices to make and each has a list of known variables and all kinds of factors which are unknown. We try to streamline choices that have worked so we don’t need to concentrate on it. I take the same route to work everyday even though there are probably another ten ways to get there, for instance.

I wish I had a computer in my head to compute all the different inputs into making a decision. I could continually collect data and analyze it practically to a 100% decision certainty. But I don’t have a computer or unlimited time, instead I rely on heuristics. Heuristics are simple methods for using particular cues and constraints to make a choice. Gerd Gigerenzer, Peter M. Todd, and The ABC Research Group authored this tome as a study of how accurate specific heuristics are.

Here are a few heuristics covered in the book:

Recognition
Definition – If one of two objects is recognized and the other is not, then infer that the recognized object has the higher value with respect to the criterion.
Example – If I ask 100 Americans which city in Germany is more populated Berlin or Saarburg? The results will be close to 100% correct – Berlin is more populated. Of the 100 people few, if any, will recognize Saarburg as a city, but practically all of them will have heard of Berlin. Because of that recognition they will answer Berlin even though they know little about the actual number of people who live in either city.

Take the Best
Definition – When making a judgment based on multiple cues, the criterion are tried one at a time according to their cue validity, and a decision is made based on the first criterion which discriminates between the alternatives.
Example – Suppose we ask the question about population again, but instead of Saarburg we use Frankfurt. Berlin and Frankfurt are both recognizable so we must use other reasons to discriminate population. We pose a list of usual indicators of large populations – historical relevance, it’s a capital, tourism, sports teams, and so on. From that list we rank the list based on which ones usually are more of an indication of population and try to separate the two. We compare Frankfurt and Berlin for tourism and realize that Berlin is much more of a destination than Frankfurt is. We stop there and don’t review the other reasons. We take the best separator – tourism – and decide to invest no more time in evaluating. Berlin is the answer.

Take the Last
Definition – When making a judgment based on multiple cues, the criterion are sorted according to what worked last time. It uses memory of prior problem solving instances and works from what was successful before.
Example – I’m now comparing Frankfurt and Munich in population. I’ve heard of both so I can’t use Recognition. I use Tourism as the candidate since it worked with Berlin and Frankfurt. This time I go with Munich because they’ve hosted an Olympics and is more of a destination than Frankfurt. This answer is correct and time and energy was saved because I didn’t need to sort through all the other criteria.

In addition to those there are:

  • Franklin’s Rule – calculates for each alternative the sum of the cue values multiplied by the corresponding cue weights (validaties) and selects the alternative with the highest score.
  • Dawes’s Rule – calculates for each alternative the sum of the cue values (multiplied by a unit weight of 1) and selects the alternative with the highest score.
  • Good Features (Alba & Marmorstein, 1987) selects the alternative with the highest number of good features. A good feature is a cue value that exceeds a specified cutoff.
  • Weighted Pros (Huber, 1979) selects the alternative with the highest sum of weighted “pros.” A cue that has a higher value for one alternative than for the others is considered a pro for this alternative. The weight of each pro is defined by the validity of the particular cue.
  • LEX or lexicographic (Fishburn, 1974) selects the alternative with the highest cue value on the cue with the highest validity. If more than one alternative has the same highest cue value, then for these alternatives the cue with the second highest validity is considered, and so on. Lex is a generalization of Take the Best
  • EBA or Elimination by Aspects (Tsersky, 1972) eliminates all alternatives that do not exceed a specified value on the first cue examined. If more than one alternative remains, another cue is selected. This procedure is repeated until only one alternative is left. Each cue is selected with a probability proportional to its weight. In contrast to this probabilistic selection, in the present chapter the order in which EBA examines cues to determine by their validity, so that in every case the cue with the highest validity is used first.
  • Multiple Regression is a statistically analysis of how the typical value of the dependent variable changes when any one of the independent variables is varied, while the other independent variables are held fixed. This is beyond the capacity of a normal human and usually requires a resources like a computer.

The book uses the city example to run a test against a few heuristics and Regression testing (computing intensive). The results are startling when you consider the number of cues needed to reach the decision (a low number for Take the Best and Take the Last and a high number for the other three).

Here’s a chart showing relative performance for this particular case study:

As you can see, Take the Best and Regression Analysis are very similar in performance. This means if you pick the right Heuristic to use for the situation you can save time and resources and still get the performance that is comparable for the trade off (time and energy).

So what does this mean? Sometimes it’s the difference between life and death.

A
man is rushed to a hospital in the throes of a heart attack. The doctor
needs to decide quickly whether the victim should be treated as a
low-risk or a high-risk patient. He is at high risk if his life is
truly threatened, and should receive the most expensive and detailed
care. Although this decision can save or a cost a life, the doctor does
not have the luxury of extensive deliberation: She or he must decide
under time pressure  using only the available cues, each of which is,
at best, merely an uncertain predictor of the patient’s risk level. For
instance, at the University of California, San Diego Medical Center, as
many as 19 such cues, including blood pressure and age, are measured as
soon as a heart attack patient is admitted. Common sense dictates that
the best way to make the decision is to look at the results of each of
those measurements, rank them according to their importance, and
combine them somehow in to a final conclusion, preferable using some
fancy statistical software package.

Consider in contrast the simple decision tree below, which was designed
by Breiman and colleagues to classify heart attack patients according
to risk using only a maximum of three variables. A patient who has  a
systolic blood pressure of less than 91 is immediately classified as
high risk – no further information is needed. Otherwise, the decision
is left to the second cue, age. A patient under 62.5 years old is
classified as low risk; if he or she is older, the one more cue (sinus
tachycardia) is needed to classify the patient as high or low risk.
Thus, the tree requires the doctor to answer a maximum of three yes/no
questions to reach a decision rather than to measure and consider 19
predicators, letting life-saving treatment proceed sooner.

To wrap up, the book has many interesting essays as chapters, ranging from bicycle races, hindsight bias, ants, mate selection, and bargaining. It’s a solid 365 pages with small font. The math and the science can be dense, but the applicability of the results are real. It doesn’t sugar coat what goes into making heuristics worthwhile – a lot of up front analysis. It does however show how powerful those paths or decision trees can be once they are implemented.

Gerd Gigerenzer has other books that are probably more digestible for the heuristically curious (Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious and Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You) but if you’re into behavior and why particular decision paths are more economical than others, then this book is a good educational read.


Other Reviews:
The IBM Data Governance Unified Process: Driving Business Value with IBM Software and Best Practices – A Book Review / How Pleasure Works – A Book Review / Why We Make Mistakes – A Book Review / Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates US – A Book Review / Rules of Thumb – A Review / I Hate People – A Review / The Job Coach for Young Professionals – A Review / A Review of The Fearless Fish Out of Water: How to Succeed When You’re the Only One Like You / A Quick Review of Johnny Bunko (a manga story)