Here are the job market and compensation numbers for January 2011 (based on the job report):
Net gain of 36,000 jobs in the month (revised in March to a gain of 68,000)
- Analysts expected an overall gain of 149,000
- Private sector payrolls increased by 50,000
- Private service producing industries added 32,000
- Goods producing industries gained 18,000
- December was revised to a gain of 152,000 from a revision of 121,000 and from an original reading of 103,000
- November was revised to a gain of 93,000 from a revised reading of 71,000 and an original reading of 39,000 gain
- October was revised to a gain of 171,000 from a second revision of 210,000 a revised reading of 172,000 and an original reading of 151,000
- Payroll processor ADP reported an employment gain of 187,000 jobs (a revised 247,000 jobs in December, 2010)
- The ADP survey and the Jobs Report survey aren’t usually this varying in their results, which, coupled with other data, makes people think the economy is shifting and the models used in the Government report are not currently effective
- The Labor Department estimates there were 886,000 workers who had a job but couldn’t get to work due to weather (5th largest account of this situation) – if true, this means the real gain in jobs is estimated to be 200,000
- 6.2 million people have been jobless for more than 6 months (long term
unemployed) – down from 6.4 million last month
- 43.8% of the unemployed are long term unemployed – down from 44.3% last month and up from 41.9% in November, 2010
- Employers announced plans to cut 38,519 jobs in January, a 20% increase over December, according to outplacement consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. This is a really low number because it usually averages just over 100,000 for the month of January every year
- Benchmark revisions were made for April 2009 to March of 2010 and show combined additional loss of 215,000 jobs during that period
- Overall, it was a confusing report – the numbers seem to contradict each other
Unemployment rate dropped to 9.0%
- Analysts predicted it would rise to 9.5%
- The 0.8% drop in a span of two months is rare: only 4 larger two month declines on record and those were in the 1940s and 1950s
- The unemployment rate has been at 9% or higher for 21 months
- Normally, when a decrease in the unemployment number happens without a very large number of new jobs it means people have dropped out of the count, but that isn’t the case this month – this is odd (504,000 people did drop out though)
- The labor force
participation rate is 64.2% (66.5% is average to good) – relatively unchanged
- The employment to population ratio is 58.4% – relatively unchanged from 58.3% last month
- The
U-6
report, which is a broader group to count (workers who are part
time but want to be full time and discouraged worker), dropped to 16.1% from 16.7%.
This reflects an even greater decrease seen in the overall unemployment rate (9.0% from 9.4%)
- PMI,
a measure of manufacturing pace, is 57% and the 20th consecutive
month of readings over 50 percent. Anything above 50% means the
machines are running
- Service sector activity rose to 59.4%, up from 57.1% last month. It was the 14th straight month of growth and the highest reading since August 2005
- 2010 fourth quarter productivity is reported at 2.6% and annualized at 3.6%
Specific Segment Job numbers:
- Manufacturing gained 49,000 jobs
- Construction lost 32,000 jobs
- Retailers gained 27,500 jobs
- Leisure and Hospitality Services lost 3,000 jobs
- Government sector lost 14,000, Federal lost 2,000
- Education and Health Services grew by 13,000 jobs
- Health Care and Social Assistance grew by 12,900
- Professional and Business Services grew by 31,000
- 11,400 jobs lost in Temporary Help (had been gaining for several months)
Wage (can be revised):
- The average weekly paycheck (seasonally adjusted) is $645.96 – an increase of $1.42
- The average hourly earning (seasonally adjusted) is $19.34
- Average
weekly hours and overtime of production and nonsupervisory employees on
private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted is
33.4 hours
Net gain of 36,000 jobs in the month (revised in March to a gain of 68,000)
- Analysts expected an overall gain of 149,000
- Private sector payrolls increased by 50,000
- Private service producing industries added 32,000
- Goods producing industries gained 18,000
- December was revised to a gain of 152,000 from a revision of 121,000 and from an original reading of 103,000
- November was revised to a gain of 93,000 from a revised reading of 71,000 and an original reading of 39,000 gain
- October was revised to a gain of 171,000 from a second revision of 210,000 a revised reading of 172,000 and an original reading of 151,000
- Payroll processor ADP reported an employment gain of 187,000 jobs (a revised 247,000 jobs in December, 2010)
- The ADP survey and the Jobs Report survey aren’t usually this varying in their results, which, coupled with other data, makes people think the economy is shifting and the models used in the Government report are not currently effective
- The Labor Department estimates there were 886,000 workers who had a job but couldn’t get to work due to weather (5th largest account of this situation) – if true, this means the real gain in jobs is estimated to be 200,000
- 6.2 million people have been jobless for more than 6 months (long term
unemployed) – down from 6.4 million last month
- 43.8% of the unemployed are long term unemployed – down from 44.3% last month and up from 41.9% in November, 2010
- 43.8% of the unemployed are long term unemployed – down from 44.3% last month and up from 41.9% in November, 2010
- Employers announced plans to cut 38,519 jobs in January, a 20% increase over December, according to outplacement consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. This is a really low number because it usually averages just over 100,000 for the month of January every year
- Benchmark revisions were made for April 2009 to March of 2010 and show combined additional loss of 215,000 jobs during that period
- Overall, it was a confusing report – the numbers seem to contradict each other
Unemployment rate dropped to 9.0%
- Analysts predicted it would rise to 9.5%
- The 0.8% drop in a span of two months is rare: only 4 larger two month declines on record and those were in the 1940s and 1950s
- The unemployment rate has been at 9% or higher for 21 months
- Normally, when a decrease in the unemployment number happens without a very large number of new jobs it means people have dropped out of the count, but that isn’t the case this month – this is odd (504,000 people did drop out though)
- The labor force
participation rate is 64.2% (66.5% is average to good) – relatively unchanged - The employment to population ratio is 58.4% – relatively unchanged from 58.3% last month
- The
U-6
report, which is a broader group to count (workers who are part
time but want to be full time and discouraged worker), dropped to 16.1% from 16.7%.
This reflects an even greater decrease seen in the overall unemployment rate (9.0% from 9.4%)
- PMI,
a measure of manufacturing pace, is 57% and the 20th consecutive
month of readings over 50 percent. Anything above 50% means the
machines are running - Service sector activity rose to 59.4%, up from 57.1% last month. It was the 14th straight month of growth and the highest reading since August 2005
- 2010 fourth quarter productivity is reported at 2.6% and annualized at 3.6%
Specific Segment Job numbers:
- Manufacturing gained 49,000 jobs
- Construction lost 32,000 jobs
- Retailers gained 27,500 jobs
- Leisure and Hospitality Services lost 3,000 jobs
- Government sector lost 14,000, Federal lost 2,000
- Education and Health Services grew by 13,000 jobs
- Health Care and Social Assistance grew by 12,900
- Professional and Business Services grew by 31,000
- 11,400 jobs lost in Temporary Help (had been gaining for several months)
Wage (can be revised):
- The average weekly paycheck (seasonally adjusted) is $645.96 – an increase of $1.42
- The average hourly earning (seasonally adjusted) is $19.34
- Average
weekly hours and overtime of production and nonsupervisory employees on
private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted is
33.4 hours
Working Thoughts 