A Sea Change Economy

The economy isn’t going to straighten out for some time. I’m getting the sense that the general public is waking up to that realization as well. For awhile it was, “this is a bad patch, but it’ll turn any month now.” And each month looks like the one before it, just a little less ugly. And I’m not sure if its less ugly because of the numbers or because everyone is getting used to it. I’ll take a look and see how my predictions have worked out and post a post-mortem.

A study came out from a few professors at Rutgers, James Hughes and Joseph Seneca which states the economy will recoup the job losses in 2017. That seems absurd, but when you think about the numbers, it isn’t. Here are the numbers:

  • 7.1 million private-sector jobs since the recession began in December 2007
  • Need to add 2.15 million jobs a year to make up the jobs deficit by 2017 (the deficit also counts the normal number of jobs needed for those that are entering the work force every year and the estimates for the rest of 2009)

Other stats:

  • November 2001 to December 2007 added 6.2 million private-sector jobs, or 1.0 million a year
  • 21.5 million private-sector jobs during the expansion from March 1991 to March 2001, or 2.15 million a year
  • 18.4 million private-sector jobs during the economic expansion from
    November 1982 to July 1990, or 2.4 million jobs a year

These numbers indicate we are in a sea change era. Lately I’ve been advocating for those that are not employed or even those that are, to look for new methods for interacting with the job market. Evaluate what you offer, not just to an employer, but to the marketplace as a whole.


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