The Next Three Job Reports will be Telling

I’ve had a sense that the job market was not getting worse. Others have
recently joined that opinion based on some preliminary data. But not
getting worse is the first step. If you graph it, you are hoping for a
V shape. It could possibly take a U shape, or even an L shape. The next
three months will start to show the shape this will take.

said it in past posts, HR departments have gotten really good at
changing gears from hiring to firing to hiring again. And when the
machine is recalibrated for hiring it will start to feed on
itself. You see, there is lots of work out there, whether its stimulus,
health care, technology, renewable energy, or even finance. Management
knows this is a time of great opportunity – resources are cheap.

But managers also know that a productivity spike is about to happen and low morale means it will happen somewhere else.

managers also know that an innovation leap is just around the corner.
Places like Silicon Valley, India, China, and US universities have
ideas that are ready to pop. A handful of sharp minds will drive a
meaningful business model out of them.

But managers also know
that this crisis has changed buying habits. Values have changed.
Mindless purchasing is over so you have to provide something that is
experiential. You have to offer something beyond the product. Branding
is ever more important.

Tomorrow (5-8-09) the world will
change. It will be interesting to read a newspaper on January 1st of
2010 to see what the view is then (if newspapers are still around then).


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