Here are the job market and compensation numbers for June 2008 (based on the job report):
Net loss of 62,000 jobs in the month (revised to a loss of 51,000)
- May modified to a loss of 62,000 jobs (was estimated as a loss of 49,000) (revised again to a loss of 47,000 jobs in the July update)
- Analysts expected a loss of 60,000
- six straight months of job losses
- For 2008, 438,000 jobs have been cut, an average of 73,000 a month
Unemployment rate remained at 5.5%
- Forecasters thought it would drop to 5.4%
- Including the people that have stopped looking for work, the unemployment number is 9.7%
- Up from 8.3% in May 2007
- Goldman Sachs is forecasting a peak of 6.4% rate in late 2009, indicating the losses are only half way complete
- The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims hit 390,500. 400,000 is a recession benchmark (380,000 is a good indicator as well)
- 2003 was the last time this number surpassed 400,000
Specific Segment Job numbers:
- Construction lost 43,000 jobs
- Almost half coming from the home building segment
- Retail lost 7,500
- Professional and Business Services lost 51,000
- Manufacturing lost 33,000 jobs
- Education and Health Services added 29,000 jobs
- Temp workers loss 30,000 jobs
- Government sector added 29,000 jobs
- Leisure and hospitality added 24,000
- Administration workers and janitors lost 70,000
— The government added 29,000 jobs and the private sector lost 91,000 jobs —
Wage:
- The seasonally adjusted average hourly wage increased 6 cents to $18.01
- This is in-line with forecasts
- Slowest increase since the start of 2006
- Average hourly earnings over the past 12 months is 3.4%
- Inflation is 4.5% over the same period
- For rank and file workers, the 12 month growth of paychecks is 2.8%
- The number of hours worked stayed the same from May
Notes:
- GDP has to be around 2.5% growth for the generation of jobs.
- The first quarter of the year saw a 1.0% growth.
- This trend of meager growth is expected into 2009
Working Thoughts 