June 2008 Jobs Report and Wages

Here are the job market and compensation numbers for June 2008 (based on the job report):

Net loss of 62,000 jobs in the month (revised to a loss of 51,000)

  • May modified to a loss of 62,000 jobs (was estimated as a loss of 49,000) (revised again to a loss of 47,000 jobs in the July update)
  • Analysts expected a loss of 60,000
  • six straight months of job losses
  • For 2008, 438,000 jobs have been cut, an average of 73,000 a month

Unemployment rate remained at 5.5% 

  • Forecasters thought it would drop to 5.4%
  • Including the people that have stopped looking for work, the unemployment number is 9.7%
    • Up from 8.3% in May 2007
  • Goldman Sachs is forecasting a peak of 6.4% rate in late 2009, indicating the losses are only half way complete
  • The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims hit 390,500. 400,000 is a recession benchmark (380,000 is a good indicator as well)
    • 2003 was the last time this number surpassed 400,000

Specific Segment Job numbers:

  • Construction lost 43,000 jobs
    • Almost half coming from the home building segment
  • Retail lost 7,500
  • Professional and Business Services lost 51,000
  • Manufacturing lost 33,000 jobs
  • Education and Health Services added 29,000 jobs
  • Temp workers loss 30,000 jobs
  • Government sector added 29,000 jobs
  • Leisure and hospitality added 24,000
  • Administration workers and janitors lost 70,000

— The government added 29,000 jobs and the private sector lost 91,000 jobs —


  • The seasonally adjusted average hourly wage increased 6 cents to $18.01
    • This is in-line with forecasts
    • Slowest increase since the start of 2006
  • Average hourly earnings over the past 12 months is 3.4%
    • Inflation is 4.5% over the same period
  • For rank and file workers, the 12 month growth of paychecks is 2.8%
  • The number of hours worked stayed the same from May


  • GDP has to be around 2.5% growth for the generation of jobs.
    • The first quarter of the year saw a 1.0% growth.
    • This trend of meager growth is expected into 2009

Job Report Stats Summary


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