Prediction Time:
The US economy will nose dive on August 25th of 2008.
Why do I pick that specific day? That is the day after the Summer Olympics ends.
Imagine this, Beijing is built to proportions of magnificence. The sky line is so high that you hurt your neck looking up and the sun is shimmering off the windows in a way that mimics an ocean sunset. The celebrations are jovial and each contestant’s face reveals relief, pride, and satisfaction. Somewhat like a gratified grandfather holding his infant granddaughter. The US finished second in gold medals to China and total medals. Several world records were broken, particularly in swimming. Wheaties is celebrating a US team that won gold in basketball and the break out star of the Olympics for the US is a gymnast.
So August 25th rolls around and markets start sluggish. But a realization sets in around lunch. The economic engine in Asia is now resting. The Olympics motivated China to put on a show that sets a high bar for others to rival. Now that the the Olympics are over and the workers building for it reenter a manufacturing workplace, the US isn’t buying. The job situation in the US is bleak. And now the job outlook in China looks bleak too. Commodity prices plunge and take the markets with it. The frail, but spry, US economy suffers the last blow it can take and goes into a very bad recession. About two months later companies from Asia and Europe begin to buy US corporations and the first seeds to recovery are planted – in the airline business. What the acquiring companies want out of their deals is the expertise that US personnel provide. To get it they fly them to their cities. Between three and nine months later (January to June of 2009) the second seed to recovery is planted – health care. After three months of traveling the baby boomer generation decides that retirement is better than 24 hour flights. So as this generation begins to retire they start using their vested 401K money to pay for life improvement procedures. This starts a huge period of medical innovation and the US leads the world to recovery by 2010.
And no one will remember 8/25/08.
Working Thoughts 